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August 2016

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The Surf & Weather Forecast for

Southern California

August 25, 2016



S-SSW (185-200) will get a little boost Thursday and Friday as new energy fills in.  More background pulses are due Saturday and Monday, to help maintain small to moderate surf through the first half of next week.  A little bit windswell through the end of the workweek and early next week could add some combo energy, and we’re also expecting some weak tropical swell from recent developments off the coast of Mainland Mexico.  Read more for details.

Get the live buoy forecast graph here –

S-SSW (185-195) from earlier in the week will linger Thursday and Friday blending with a couple new pulses from the S-SSW (185-195) and SW (220-230).  The new energy should help pick the surf up a little bit again Thursday and Friday with standout breaks running waist to head high during the peak.

Size will linger through early next week, as additional background SSW (195-205) shows up and helps maintain 2+ feet of deepwater swell.  Conditions are looking pretty light through the weekend, at least in the mornings so the small surf should at least be playful for standout southerly exposures.

Early-mid-next week we’re expecting a slight increase in windswell.  Models are looking a little aggressive at the moment, but its possible it could bring some knee to waist high waves to standout W-NW exposures Tuesday and Wednesday.  We’ll have to wait and see.

Tropical Overview

The tropics are looking quite entertaining right now.  We’ve got two systems on either side of the Pacific, that could end up being swell makers.  The first is TD-13E, a developing system several hundred miles SW of Mainland Mexico.  The current track is not looking good though for bringing anything solid to the region.

This is a pretty simple image, but the idea is pretty straight forward (no pun intended).  Basically as 13E strengthens into TS Lester, and eventually Hurricane (according to the forecast) the storm is going to be on a pretty straight W track.  That’s going to direct most of the storms energy towards Hawaii instead of California.  Now… don’t get me wrong it is a cyclone, and will be capable of spinning off at least a little bit of energy our way (right now estimates are around 2 feet of medium period swell) for early next week.  It will blend with the long-period background energy in the water.  I wouldn’t expect much more than knee to chest high waves at standouts.

Check out the North Pacific Swell Forecast for info on Typhoon Lionrock (cool name right?)


North Pacific Swell Forecast

So Ty Lionrock is currently located a couple hundred miles south of the Daito islands, a small archipelago southeast of Okinawa.  The storm is currently a category 3 typhoon, sustaining winds or 105 knots.

It’s a pretty strong system, and it’s been milling about off the coast of Japan of the past several days, restrengthening as it encountered warmer waters in the current area where it is.  With this new added strength, the forecast is showing the storm taking a NE track over the next couple of days, with winds blowing at least 85-90 knots through the first part of next week.

The NE track, and strong winds should help focus some energy towards California for next weekend/early the following week.  It’s hard to say how big it will be, but the long period energy should at least be somewhat punchy.

From what I can tell it could bring waist to head high+ surf to W-WNW (280-300) exposures during the peak.  Stay tuned for updates though…

South Pacific Swell Forecast

The Southern Hemisphere isn’t showing much activity for awhile.

Only expecting small background swell through the start of September…  Stay tuned.

The next long-range forecast will be posted on Monday, August 29, 2016.

Austin Gendron
Surf Forecaster

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