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October 2017

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The Surf & Weather Forecast for

Southern California

October 16, 2017

SOLID SSW TO START THINGS OFF THIS WEEK

SHORT RANGE SURF FORECAST OVERVIEW

SSW (195-205) swell will continue to build to a peak Tuesday/Wednesday, likely with some solid moderate sized surf at standouts.  Late in the week we’re expecting a cold storm system to approach from the north.  It could mean a mix of wind swell and longer period NW energy for the end of the work week.  New S (175-185) arrives Sunday.  Read more for details.

Get the live Southern California Buoy Forecast graph here - http://solspot.com/buoy/oceanside-offshore/forecast.

The new SSW (195-205) that started showing Monday afternoon is expected to build both in size and consistency on Tuesday.  Wave heights should peak mid to late in the day with surf in the chest to overhead+ range at standout south facing breaks.

Wednesday wave heights should hold through the day, with average spots in the waist to head high range, and still some bigger sets.  Swell starts to ease a little a little through the second half of the week.  Conditions overall are looking pretty clean through the week, with light variable/offshore winds in the mornings, and a light to moderate sea breeze in the afternoons.

The big question marks come for the end of the week.  The models have started to converge on a solution that would bring a fairly large pulse of NW (305-315) long-period swell down the coast from the Gulf of Alaska. As of right now we’re expecting the storm to generate 35-40+ foot seas less than a thousand miles off the coast of Washington/Oregon. That is still pretty steep for Southern California though.

Based on the most recent model run it looks like the 19 to 20-second forerunners will work their way down the coast reaching Pt. Conception Friday morning.  Some of the energy may be able to creep around the corner and wrap into Southern California, although at this point its not looking very hopeful.  The passing storm could generate some wind swell though, that will have a better chance of working its way into the W-NW facing corners of Socal through the end of the week.  At this point surf size is point of contention, and for most standout exposures is likely to run knee to chest high.  It is possible for more size at some magnets.

As the NW energy starts to ease through the end of the weekend, southerly exposures are expected to see a new small to moderate sized S (175-185) fill in.  Standouts could be running knee to chest high+.  More details on Thursday.

Here’s what to expect on a day-to-day basis this week:

Monday the 15th Long period forerunners for the next SSW pulse start to fill in..  Wave heights expected to be waist to head high at standouts in the evening

Tuesday the 16th Surf at southerly exposures continues to build to a peak, with standouts running chest to overhead+

Wednesday the 17th surf expected to hold in the chest to overhead+ range at standouts.

Thursday the 18th southerly exposures start to see size easing into the waist to head high range as a little bit of wind swell could start to join the mix.

Friday the 19th, NW energy is supposed to fill in through the day, potentially bringing knee to chest high+ surf to westerly exposures.  Southerly facing spots will be on the decline

Saturday the 20th W-NW exposures have potential to be running knee to chest high+.  South facing breaks expected to be on the smaller side.

Sunday the 21st New S swell starts filling in as NW energy eases.  Standouts expected to be running knee to chest high.

Tropical Overview

Nothing in the tropics

LONG-RANGE SURF AND SWELL FORECAST

North Pacific Swell Forecast

The medium range models are showing potential for another pulse of WNW-NW (290-310) energy arriving early next week. The storm looks like it could generate 35 foot seas, but it doesn’t hold its strength after crossing the dateline.

As a result we’re expecting to see a pulse of moderate sized 18 to 19-second swell arriving mid to late next Monday and bringing a little bit of surf to California for the first half of next week. I’ll have more details for you later on this week. Stay tuned.

South Pacific Swell Forecast

We’re still expecting some new S (175-185) for around the 22nd/23rd from a system currently south of Easter Island.

There’s also the long-period SW (210-220) for around the 26th. That ones going to be a bit smaller but should still mean some playful small surf for exposed breaks end of next eek More details next week.

Next long-range forecast expected for Thursday the 19th. 

Austin Gendron
Surf Forecaster
http://www.solspot.com/

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



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