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The Surf & Weather Forecast for
January 16, 2017
LONG-PERIOD WNW TO START OFF THE WEEK. STORMIER WEATHER AND SWELL DUE LATE IN THE WEEK
SHORT RANGE SURF FORECAST OVERVIEW
Long-period W-WNW (280-300) swell will peak today with cleaner conditions. Size will ease more Tuesday and Wednesday as we prepare for a large mix of W-WNW (270-290) energy and stormy weather for the second half of the week/weekend. Read more for details…..
I apologize ahead of time, I need to make today’s forecasts somewhat short and sweet. Thursday’s report will have a more comprehensive break down of how the conditions will work out with the incoming solid swell that should peak through the weekend. Ok, moving on things are going to start off with some very fun W-WNW (270-290) in the water with longer periods. Wave heights should be running waist to head high+ along the exposed coast with set waves in the head high to overhead+ range at deepwater spots and magnets. Size will slowly ease Tuesday and Wednesday as conditions continue to be pretty calm.
Wednesday night/Thursday the weather breaks down again. The first in a series of storms will move through the region, generating southerly-prefrontal winds overnight shifting more westerly through the day Thursday. Rain will also move down the coast overnight. Showers will linger on Thursday with onshore winds prevailing. The next system arrives Friday, with another round of breezy southerly winds and potentially moderate to heavy rainfall thanks to a stronger jet stream influence. Then a third system is due Saturday, followed by a stronger storm Sunday night into Monday. Essentially we’re expecting unsettled weather through the start of next week. Day to day conditions will be storm dependent though, and are likely to pivot quickly.
As far as swell goes, an initial pulse of medium to long-period WNW (280-295) arrives on Wednesday afternoon/evening. Size will build through Thursday. It will help bring wave heights back into the waist to head high+ range with standouts possibly running chest to overhead+. There will be a mix of windswell on the surface as well.
More westerly (260-280) energy arrives on Friday and will help boost wave heights into the chest high to overhead+ range, potentially well overhead at the more exposed beaches. Again though conditions look pretty bad. As stormy weather continues through the weekend, a third pulse is expected to arrive. This one originated in the West Pacific and will be able to actually put together some decent fetch prior to arriving. In turn it’s expected that it could arrive with longer 18 to 20 second periods Friday night, building into Saturday.
Mixing with the large swell already in the water and energy generated near the coast from Friday’s system, Saturday will likely be the biggest day of the week. Right now deepwater heights are conservatively expected to be 10 feet . Many charts and models though are suggesting 10-15 feet of mixed swell. Winds could light up a little Sunday. We’ll have to wait and see, but hat could mean overhead to double overhead surf along the exposed coast, with potential for some bigger sets at standouts and magnets that can hold the size. Surf will ease some through the start of next week, but with another storm approaching on Sunday, we’re expecting another pulse due Monday and continued mixed conditions.
Here’s what to expect on a day-to-day basis this week:
Monday the 16th WNW swell peaks, with waist to head high+ surf along the exposed coast. Standouts could be running chest to overhead+. Conditions remain favorable.
Tuesday the 17th WNW swell holds for a few areas in the morning, but will start backing off from north to south through the day.
Wednesday the 18th surf backs off into the knee to chest high range.
Thursday the 19th new swell builds. Standouts build into the chest to overhead+ range late in the day, with the exposed coast running waist to head high+.
Friday the 20th larger head high to well overhead surf at standouts.
Saturday the 21st the swell mix peaks with overhead to double overhead at standouts.
Sunday the 22nd swell eases a little bit through, but still head high to well overhead at standouts early in the day as the swell drops.
No tropical cyclones at this time
LONG-RANGE SURF AND SWELL FORECAST
North Pacific Swell Forecast
Despite the easing surf early next week, Monday’s storm will potentially produce another small reinforcing pulse of W-WNW swell. Conditions will continue to be breezy and onshore for the Central California coast though, likely ensuring that the mix of overhead to double overhead+ surf is mostly unapproachable.
Looking out past that, the West Pacific continues to produce, with another strong storm coming together off the coast of Japan over the weekend.
It looks like high pressure is going to start to dominate the NEPac though following Sunday/Monday’s storm. That’s going to force the system northward towards Alaska instead of east towards California. As that high pressure build over California mid to late next week, it should mean dry weather.
It would also mean likely cleaner conditions for the 25th/26th when that long-period WNW-NW swell is due. Stay tuned.
South Pacific Swell Forecast
No notable swells at this time
Next long-range forecast expected for Thursday the 19th of January.