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John Lyman Photos

July 2017

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The Surf & Weather Forecast for

Southern California

July 24 , 2017

POTENTIAL FOR GOOD TROPICAL SWELL ARRIVING THIS COMING WEEKEND

SHORT RANGE SURF FORECAST OVERVIEW

Small tropical swell from TS Greg and some background energy will keep very small but in most cases mostly surfable waves in the water at southerly exposures.  Things are looking a little more interesting this weekend as tropical swell mix from Irwin and Hilary start to build late Friday into Saturday.  Read more for details.

Get the live Southern California Buoy Forecast graph here - http://solspot.com/buoy/oceanside-offshore/forecast.

Surfwise we’re looking at smaller mostly ankle to waist high surf through most of the work week.  There isn’t much in the water, and there’s a good chance that it will be inconsistent and even smaller over the next couple of days.

The models actually continue to show minimal surf through what looks like Friday morning.  Friday day though… things are going to get a little more interesting. Swell from TS Irwin, and Hurricane Hilary are due to arrive late Friday into Saturday, and could potentially generate some solid SSE surf for the weekend and early next week.  Check-out the tropical outlook for more details.

Here’s what to expect on a day-to-day basis this week:

Monday the 24th knee to waist high+ surf at southerly exposures

Tuesday the 25th ankle to waist high+ surf at southerly exposures

Wednesday the 26th ankle to waist high+ surf at southerly exposures

Thursday the 27th ankle to waist high+ surf at southerly exposures

Friday the 28th, southerly swell mix should could start to increase a little, with standouts running in the knee to chest high+ range.  Potentially bigger late.

Saturday the 29th keeping an eye on tropical energy from Irwin and Hilary.  Potential for head high to well overhead surf at standout southerly exposures

Sunday the 30th Moderate to plus sized surf from tropical swell in the water.

Tropical Overview

Right now we’ve got TS Greg (no longer a swell maker), TS Irwin (generating minimal swell for Thursday/Friday) and Hurricane Hilary. Hilary has a lot of potential to become a decent swell maker for California, with a bigger emphasis on Socal.

Irwin and Hilary are both expected to strengthen over the next couple of days. Irwin’s current track doesn’t look all that conducive to producing much if any swell for even Socal, but Hilary’s track is expected to be sped up to the WNW-NW as high pressure over the US Southwest takes hold. In that time Hilary is expected to move into the Socal swell window as a Major Hurricane, with enough NW movement to focus a decent amount of swell energy on Southern California. The storm isn’t expected to really work its way into the Central California swell window until later in the week. Still though there should be some energy wrapping around Pt. Conception, bringing fun and potentially decent sized surf to exposures that can pick up the steep swell.

The biggest question marks come mid to late in the week though, when the two storms could start to influence each other. The global models aren’t in very good agreement, so we’ll have to re-visit this on Thursday, but its looking like there’s a chance that as Hilary approaches Irwin, it could pull Irwin on a more northerly track, adding another element of southerly tropical swell into the equation. In all honesty its just too early to tell right now. What we do know though is that it is possible, and that for standouts in Socal its likely that surf will be running head high to several feet overhead, with bigger sets at magnets. I’ll have an update on Thursday, until then keep an eye on the charts

LONG-RANGE SURF AND SWELL FORECAST

North Pacific Swell Forecast

This is kind of a mute point, but I am keeping an eye on Typhoon Noru. Models are showing it taking a brief eastward track over the next couple of days. That could result in some small long-period W (260-275) for early next week. It’s not showing up on many of the charts, but I would not be surprised if there were a few sneaky waves rolling through at standout westerly exposures early next week, possibly as early as the weekend. It’s hard to say unfortunately. If I need to update on Thursday I will.

South Pacific Swell Forecast

The long-range models show a couple of systems strengthening south of the Pitcairn’s over the past weekend and next couple of days. The first one Took a NE track while in the Socal swell window before high pressure pushed it east. It should mean some a little extra long-period S (175-185)showing up Saturday under the radar.

The next system is expected to take a more northerly track as it generates 30+ foot seas. This one looks more likely to send consistent swell for around the 1st from a similar southerly track. The big question will be is it going to be joining the tropical swell that could very likely be still in the water mid-next week. More updates on Thursday.

Next long-range forecast expected for Thursday the 27th of July. 

Austin Gendron
Surf Forecaster
http://www.solspot.com/

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



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July 26, 2017 * H.B. Pier

July 23, 2017 * H.B. Pier

July 21, 2017 * H.B. Pier

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July 2, 2017 * H.B. Pier

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June 30, 2017 * H.B. Pier

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