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The Surf & Weather Forecast for
June 23, 2016
SOLID SOUTHERN HEMI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SMALLER BUT FUN SURF NEXT WEEK
SHORT RANGE SURF FORECAST OVERVIEW
Solid SSW (190-200) in the water right now, and it should be building to a peak on Friday, then holding some size through the weekend thanks to another pulse coming through. There’s a little bit of windswell coming in from the W-NW as well but its nothing compared to the southern hemi, and causing more problems than doing good. Next week we’re looking at some late comers as another couple of more moderate sized pulses help bring fun surf through the end of the week. Read more for details.
Get the live buoy forecast graph here – http://solspot.com/buoy/oceanside-offshore/forecast.
The W-NW gradient over the outer waters is being driven by building high pressure aloft to our east warming the interior. Right now we’re looking at lighter morning winds each day, maybe a little bit of an eddy circulation Friday and Saturday morning, but with an onshore breeze in the afternoons. That onshore gradient is going to weaken over the weekend as the thermal trough pushes closer to the coast and things start to heat up. We could see more of an offshore flow developing early next week with really warm temperatures.
That breeze is going to develop a little bit of windswell Friday and Saturday along the W-NW facing coast. A few parts of Santa Barbara and Ventura may see surfable size but for the most part its going to add some awkward bump to the surface of the peaking south swell mix in the water… as the weekend goes on you will notice less of the wonky conditions due to this variable.
Unless you’ve been living under a rock… or in my case behind some (the Channel Islands), the current SSW (190-200) is in full swing right now, and should be peaking Friday as the 3rd pulse starts to arrive. Consistency and size are no longer an issue, with wave heights chest to overhead+ along the exposed coast. Standouts and deepwater spots running head high to several feet overhead+ with set waves going double overhead when everything comes together. Size will back off a little bit over the weekend, but the third pulse filling in Friday is going to mean at least similar wave heights to Thursday. Size will linger through early next week, but likely start to drop more noticeably Monday and Tuesday.
Next week is going to start off a little slow, but it doesn’t look like the surf is going to fall all the way off. There’s still some activity in the South Pacific kicking up a couple of late comers to the party. These are weaker systems, but do have better NE trajectory and could be a bit more southerly in angle (180-205). So we’re expecting to see at least some small to moderate sized surf, with better consistency mid to late next week. As or right now wave heights are expected to be running waist to chest high along the exposed coast, with standouts seeing more consistency in the chest to head high range with a few head high-overhead waves
Tropics are looking quiet.
LONG-RANGE SURF AND SWELL FORECAST
North Pacific Swell Forecast
Nothing really going on in the NPac right now.
South Pacific Swell Forecast
After this weeks swell starts to slowly back off over the weekend/next week it’s not going to be long before the next round of energy arrives. Models are already setting up the next couple of storms to move through the South Pacific. The storm track does appear to be improving a little bit, allowing these systems a little more ENE-NE movement, but high pressure in the mid latitudes continues to keep them from gaining much traction before sending them east and eventually SE again…
As you can see these two little guys are quite a bit weaker than the storms we were looking at last week that produced swell that should be arriving over the next few days. The better track though should help with consistency as the storm’s fetch focuses more swell towards California. You can see the first system here pushing ENE as it passes south of French Polynesia. A second larger and stronger system will follow up midweek. That high pressure though… you can see it keeping those storms from progressing north of 40S.
In the end we should still see a couple small to moderate sized SSW (200-210) pulses of swell showing up mid to late next week. The first is due Tuesday/Wednesday (28th/29th) of next week, with a second arriving likely on Thursday-ish (30th). It’s still a bit too early to call the details, but I’ll follow up this Thursday.
The next long-range forecast will be posted on Thursday, June 23, 2016.